Mark This On Your Calendars - John Was Wrong About Transformers Date
Ok, I’m just being a smart ass with the title. As you know, I put up a post yesterday with a prediction that Paramount would movie the release date of Transformers off of the July 4th weekend. The main reason for this is that it would be a smart move. As you know, I think Transformers could break opening weekend box office records… but that will never happen if it opens on the exact same day as Die Hard 4.
Tarnsformers will make FAR more money than Die Hard 4… but the reality is that Die Hard 4 will still make a butt load of cash, and take away some of the Transformers revenue. A simple move like moving Transformers off the date would solve that. But it appears my prediction that Paramount would move the release date was dead dead wrong.
This morning I got a call from Paramount asking me “who told you we were changing dates???” So there you have it. Transformers is NOT moving off the July 4th release date… even though they SHOULD.
See kiddies… when I’m wrong, I’ll put up a whole post to admit it, ;)
29 Comments, Comment or Ping
Leeanne
Does the wound hurt John? ;p
LOL
when you’re not used to being wrong and all…
Dec 22nd, 2006
John Campea
It’s a weird feeling… this “being wrong”. How do you rest of you put up with it all the time??
:)
Dec 22nd, 2006
Leeanne
Oh I never once said that I’m ever wrong! ;)
Dec 22nd, 2006
Lou_Sytsma
Why did Transformers blink first? They should have stood their ground and waited for DH4 to move. That is a lucrative slot to give up.
Dec 22nd, 2006
Jonathan
John, saying this will or even COULD break box office records is insane.
The following for Transformers is NO WHERE near that of Spider-Man, X-Men, Superman, or even Harry Potter. In fact, I predict this opening to something around $50 million and no more.
Really, though, what possibly makes you think the following for this is so huge? I’m curious? If it’s internet buzz, we should all know by now how unreliable that is (SERENITY, anyone?).
Dec 22nd, 2006
Phil Gee
Don’t sweat it John. But what makes you think that Die Hard 4 won’t budge? I’m not completely knowledgable on the subject but if Fox gets weak tracking for Die Hard 4 in comparison to Transformers (likely), they’ll move their release date. I hope they do; it’s just silly.
Dec 22nd, 2006
medavids
Let me just throw this one out…
Yes, you were wrong about the whole date thing, thus a “ding” in your puffy-shirted armor. Maybe it stung, maybe it didn’t.
BUT, getting a call from Paramount trumped, by far, the wrong date part. Since you knew that you simply HAD TO TELL US you got a call from Paramount, you though you’d couch it in your no-news-news of having the date wrong.
I got a call from NASA earlier today…
Of course, it was Johnny Nasa trying to sell me a mattress, but still, hey, I GOT A CALL FROM NASA!
bwhahahaha
Dec 22nd, 2006
GODFATHER
John…
You’re not wrong. You just have a differing opinion. I think Transformers should open on the long weekend in May. Isn’t that the biggest movie weekend anyways?
Dec 22nd, 2006
transformers statues
lol
medavids, that’s funny! i was impressed for 2 reasons, one, john admitted he was wrong and two, that paramount called him. but now we know the real deal.
Dec 22nd, 2006
???
Did I miss something? When is John ever right?
Dec 22nd, 2006
Matt
The only reason that I think that they aren’t moving the date is this:
If they thought the movie was going to suck, they’d want the largest possible opening weekend they could get because they know that sales would sharply drop the next week based off of word of mouth.
If it’s as good as we all hope it will be (and maybe the studio knows its good), its quite conceivable that Transformers will have a very respectable opening weekend (July 4th, people who don’t go to see movies often see movies on this weekend), AND a very respectable 2nd weekend.
To me, this seems like a good sign about the quality of the movie.
Dec 22nd, 2006
frankwolftown
I find it hard to believe that a movie about robots will beat out the timeless movie Titanic but it just might give it a run for its money.
Dec 22nd, 2006
JohnIan
I thought this was cute. http://www.lilformers.com/home.php Awww.
Dec 22nd, 2006
darren j seeley
Actually my 2006 calendar has a mark from last month where John said Sly Stallone never appeared on the Actors Studio and a few months before when he said screenwriters are never on a movie set.
Dec 22nd, 2006
Joseph Ferrarelli
I don’t know…they should move it back..I rather see this then die hard, but its a little stupid..you have to opend this movie up against nothing…why? because you need to get that last couple groups who wouldnt normally see this come see it because nothing worth noting is playing.
Dec 22nd, 2006
Kristina
Nah Nah Ni boo boo Campea was wrooooooong!!!!!
Just Kidding:)
Dec 22nd, 2006
mero
john,
if you’re so damn confident about TF, then you shouldn’t worry at all about DH4. and you’ve changed your prediction again btw. the first time you said definatively that TF WILL break the all time opening record. now you’re making a ton of conditions/caveats like if the trailer is good, if it’s opening against not another action movie, if the teaser is not as good as you hoped.. etc. etc..
P.S., you’re dead wrong about the opening weekend. :)
P.P.S., why haven’t you talked about Rocky Balboa, or Persuit of Happyness? I can understand why not Persuit of Happyness because it isn’t exactly your cup of tea (i.e. no cgi, explosions, lightsabers). but Rocky Balboa, you’ve mentioned before in other posts. I mean, if a movie debuts at #1, i think it deserves a mention on your site.
Dec 23rd, 2006
John Campea
Mero,
You’re so simplistic. The conditions of the movie looking as good as I hoped and the marketing being well done are so obvious I would hope I wouldn’t have to mention them a year in advance.
And no matter how good TF is, if it opens on the exact same day as another big blockbuster film that appeals to much of the same audience, then you’d have to be a purposfully blind fool to not recognize that will hurt (now matter how big or small) your opening weekend box office.
PS. I’m always right.
Dec 23rd, 2006
SamTaylor
Hi John, you know - sometimes I appreciate your comments on here because it generally feels like you’re one of us normal folk.
Then you post stuff like this, which reminds us that you’re not normal, that you make money off this venture (hey, not a complaint - good for you, I wish it was me, who doesn’t?) and that you have some type of sway in the film business.
It puts it in perspective, of course. And I really will never think of you as one of the down home people anymore. It sort of makes me not trust you, either.
Dec 23rd, 2006
mero
“sway in the film business”?
i had a hearty laugh after i saw that. since this is really a ‘non-news’ item, i bet john posted this just to say Paramount called him.
I think the main question about John’s TF prediction is this:
How accurate are you when you make B.O. predictions?
In the past, were you always spot on, over-estimate, under-estimate?
Dec 23rd, 2006
John Campea
Hey SamTaylor
I appreciate your comments… however, don’t blow things out of proportion. I’m just a guy with a blog. Period. The only reason I get any attention from anyone is because a lot of people read this site. That’s it. I have no “sway” over anyone or anything.
MERO:
You said:
“i bet john posted this just to say Paramount called him”
What a fucking dip shit moron thing to say. If I don’t post this, then people say “John never admits he’s not perfect”, and if I do post it, then dip shits say “he just posted it to say Paramount contacted him. Fuck it.
Since when is it news that paramount calls me for something? I’m a site with a bunch of readers. Studios contact all the movie sites with any blip amount of readers… it’s nothing new or special.
Dec 23rd, 2006
Varun Lella
JOHN- Dont let Mero get you upset because he has never had a major studio call him. I have had Paramount and Warner and Screen Gems call me to talk about stuff and I am just a film-editor for a college newspaper…some people just dont get calls.
It is actually not bad to “blink” and hit the post July 4 weekend. It worked for Pirates when they gave the weekend to Superman and they wrecked them the following weekend.
So it may be best for them to change….im just saying.
Dec 23rd, 2006
Tarmac Chris
John, no offence, but how do you POSSIBLY see this breaking box office records? I mean don’t get me wrong, after seeing the most recent trailer, I suddenly wanted to go out and see this movie (which I hadn’t beforehand), BUT, I still can’t get past this being a movie about a Toy franchise I used to like as a child, I don’t know anyone that even knows about this film and when I talk to people about it, the usual response it a “a movie about toy cars that change into robots, no thank you”. I just do not see this movie breaking 100 million. Perhaps it might take it if it goes higher because of the national date.
Dec 23rd, 2006
John Campea
Hey Tarmac
I draw your attention to a couple of years ago before the release of Pirates of the Caribbean.
“A movie based on a theme park ride at disney Land? No thank you”
Look how that turned out.
That a lot of people still haven’t heard about this isn’t surprising in the least… remember… the movie is still 7 months away. They haven’t even begun to market this thing yet.
Having said that… if Paramout is too stupid to move off of July 4th (the exact same day another summer blockbuster, Die Hard 4, is opening), then I’ll agree, it won’t break 100 million opening weekend.
Dec 23rd, 2006
SamTaylor
John - just to be clear, I still love the discussion, so don’t feel like I”m trying to bash on you because you posted this in the first place.
But to say you’re just a guy with a blog? well - i purposely started putting the link to mine on here because you said that. Why? Well - because I get an average of 10 readers per week.
You? Thousands, I’d imagine, no? I can pretty much guarantee it.
I point to the past skirmish you had with that one studio (I’m blanking right now and far too lazy to go to archives) over the picture you posted. Remember>? An executive called you to cool things down.
You’re not the average Joe. And I think you’re not average in your comments because of what this blog as become. I take your comments the same way I do Harry over at Aint It Cool News (although I stopped going there a long time ago. And i mean that - like four years or more!). Grain of salt and all. Granted, I still come here. I love to read the news aspect. But the opinions just seem wrong. I feel like you have too much sway in the industry in general - so it’s like if you say something you’re an advertisement.
Does that make sense?
Maybe we can actually have a real chat about this some time. your choice. I assume you’ll be too busy (because of that whole film industry thing and all) to say yes. No worries. I understand.
I’ll keep coming here. At least for a little while longer.
Dec 24th, 2006
John Campea
Hey SamTaylor,
Well dude… think what you want. The only reason any studios contact me is because I have readers. My blog is 100% no different than anyone else’s blog EXCEPT for the fact that lots of people read it.
If you’re saying that becuase people read my site, then my “opinions just seem wrong”, then I don’t know what to tell you. Go somewhere else (I say that with all due respect). I 100% write my stie the EXACT same way the day I started it 3 years ago with 20 people reading it a month as I do now with a million people reading it. That will never change.
I don’t care if studios like my opinions, and I (honestly) don’t care if readers like my opinions. Everyone can kiss my ass if they don’t like it. It’s MY opinion, and I don’t care what other people think. That’s what a BLOG is… opinions. And I’m owned by no one.
I have no “sway” over anyone or anything. Yes, some studios don’t want to piss me off if they don’t have to, just because I have readers… but they’ll NEVER take my suggestions, they’ll NEVER ask my opinion, and they’ll NEVER care if I like a decision they make or not… nor should they.
Anyway Sam, Merry Christmas to you and yours. But really, you should go read someplace else if you just think my “opnions are wrong” because I have lots of readers. The Movie Blog is the same today as it was 3 years ago.
Dec 24th, 2006
GODFATHER
I have two thoughts on the 7/4/7 release weekend: 1st) I think Die Hard will end up moving off the July 4th weekend. If they don’t, more of their target demographic will be lost because they’ll be going to see TF than DH. Reason being, thought 2) DH will probably be rated R, while TF will be PG-13 or 14-AA (highly doubt the 14-AA). This takes away MANY people with families on a long weekend, doing a night out. This will kill DH, as I’m sure most men will take their kids to spend time with them on the long weekend than let them be, and go off to DH.
If DH stays on the same weekend, I still see TF doing over $50 million opening weekend.
Dec 25th, 2006
Bob
john,
you make a very goodpoint. transformers should open another weekend. BUT, i dont think that this movie is going to make more money than Titanic all together, or than Pirates 2 opening weekend, but transformers definitely will kick the ass out of Die Hard 4. Paramount has made a big mistake not listening to John
Dec 26th, 2006
NN
this film not clear
Apr 6th, 2007
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